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Science, Technology and Development Vol. 33 (3), 2014
Research Article
Forecasting of Garlic Area and Production in Pakistan
Sobia Naheed, Irum Raza, M. Asif Masood, Muhammad Zubair Anwar and Nusrat Habib
 
Abstract: Present study is designed to forecast area and production of garlic in Pakistan, using past trends. Secondary data for the period of 1980-1981 to 2011-2012 were used to estimate future prospects of garlic area and its production in Pakistan, using (ARIMA) model. ARIMA (0, 1, 1) was appropriate form for estimation. The ARIMA model showed that forecast values of area and production would be 6.75 (000’hec) and 57.11 (000’t) in 2012 and 2013, respectively. If the present growth remains the same then the area and production of garlic crop would be 6.98 thousand hectare and 59.65 thousand tonnes, respectively in 2016 and 2017. The capacity of superior area and production lies in adequate accessibility of guidance to farming society, soil preservation and renovation and particularly the accommodating government strategies concerning garlic farming in the country. These forecasts will help the decision makers to make better policies regarding crop production, price and consumption.
 
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